Conclusion
Although many alarmist articles in the press have trumpeted improvements inthe Chinese military，those enhancements are pockets of modernization in a largelyanti-quated force.Chinas military modernization is more rapid than before butis not a massive Soviet-style military buildup.As the Chinese economy grows andChina becomes a great power ，the United States should accept that it，like othergreat powers，will want more influence over its region.If kept within bounds，that increased sphere of influence should not threaten vital U.S.interests.Butthe United States ，especially under the Bush administrations new expansive nationalsecurity strategy of primacy and preemption ，sees any change in the status quoin East Asia as a threat to its expansive list of vital interests.If the UnitedStates unnecessarily maintains，or even continues to expand，its defense perimeterto surround and contain China ，the rising power and the status quo powerboth armedwith nuclear weaponsmay come into needless conflict.The United States must takea less grandiose view of its vital interests，redraw its defense perimeter ，abrogateits Cold Warera alliances （including the informal alliance with nonstrategic Taiwan），and reverse its military buildup.Currently ，the United States is unnec-essarilymodernizing its armed forces faster than is China ，which is starting from an extremelylow level of military modernity.China，whose highest priority is economic development，is now reacting to the expansion of the U.S.defense perimeter and the U.S.mili-tary buildup by increasing its own defense bud-get more rapidly.Thus，U.S.policymay be engendering the threat it most fears.
Notes
1.U.S.Department of Defense ，Annual Report on the Military Power of thePeoples Republic of China ：Report to Congress Pursuant to the FY2000National DefenseAuthorization Act ，2002.Although the report was required by Congress in an FY2000law ，DoD submitted it in 2002.Subsequently cited as DoD，Military Power of thePRC.
2.China Security Review Commission ，Report to Congress of the U.S.-ChinaReview CommissionThe National Security Implications of the Economic Relationshipbetween the United States and China ，July 2002，Appendix 2，pp.16.Membersof the com-mission included Chairman Richard DAmato，a former foreign policy counselfor Sen.Robert Byrd（D-W.Va.）；Vice Chairman Michael Ledeen ，from the hawkishAmerican Enterprise Institute ；George Becker ，former president of the UnitedSteelworkers of America ；Stephen Bryen，former chief of the Pentagons officewith jurisdiction over controls on technology exports ；Patrick Mulloy ，formerhead of the Commerce Departments office responsible for ensuring for-eign compliancewith trade agreements ；William Reinsch，former head of the Commerce Departmentsoffice to administer and enforce export control policies and former legislativeassistant to Sen.John Rockefeller（D-W.Va.）；Roger Robinson Jr.，senior staffmember at the National Security Council during the Reagan administration；ArthurWaldron ，director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute ；MichaelWessel，former staff member in the office of Richard Gephardt（D-Mo.）；and LarryWortzel ，director of the Asian Studies Center at the hawkish Heritage Foundation.
3.Christopher A.McNally and Charles E.Morrison ，Asia Pacific Security Outlook2002（Tokyo ：Japan Center for International Exchange，2002），p.55.
4.DoD，Military Power of the PRC，p.8.
5.Ibid.，p.9.
6.George W.Bush ，The National Security Strategy of the United States ofAmerica ，White House ，September 2002，pp.v，14，15.
7.Bates Gill and Michael OHanlon ，Chinas Hollow Military ，National Interest，no.56（Summer 1999）：1.
8.Bush ，p.iv.
9.DoD，Military Power of the PRC，p.38.
10.David Shambaugh ，Remarks at the Cato Institutes Policy Forum，Is ChinasMilitary Modernization a Threat to the United States？
September 9，2002，www.cato.org/events/020909pf.html.
11.International Institute for Strategic Studies ，The Military Balance：20022003（London：Oxford University Press，2002），p.298.
12.DoD ，Military Power of the PRC，p.38.Emphasis added.
13.China Security Review Commission，chap.9，p.2.
14.Muthiah Alagappa，Military Professionalism in Asia ：Ascendance of theOld Professionalism ，in Military Professionalism in Asia：Conceptual and EmpiricalPerspectives，ed.Muthiah Alagappa（Honolulu：East-West Center ，2001），p.184.
15.Gill and OHanlon，p.8.
16.International Institute for Strategic Studies ，p.241.
17.China Security Review Commission，chap.10，p.4.
18.Gill and OHanlon，pp.3，8.
19.China Security Review Commission，chap.9，p.4.
20.DoD ，Military Power of the PRC，p.15.
21.International Institute for Strategic Studies ，pp.22，147.
22.DoD ，Military Power of the PRC，p.20.
23.For more on this point，see Ivan Eland ，Tilting at Windmills：PostColdWar Military Threats to U.S.Security ，Cato Institute Policy Analysis no.332，February 8，1999，p.24.
24.Shambaugh.
25.Cited in Gill and OHanlon ，p.4.
26.Quoted in China Less Aggressive toward Surveillance Planes，WashingtonPost，August 24，2002，p.A9.
27.Cited in Gill and OHanlon ，p.2.
28.Ibid.，pp.2，8.
29.Department of Defense ，The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait：Reportto Congress Pursuant to the FY 99Appropriations Bill ，1999，p.2.
30.DoD ，Military Power of the PRC，pp.6，9.
31.DoD ，TheSecurity Situation in the Taiwan Strait ，p.3.
32.DoD ，Military Power of the PRC，p.9.
33.International Institute for Strategic Studies ，p.241.
34.Remarks of Ross H.Munro of the Center for Security Studies at the CatoInstitutes Policy Forum ，Is Chinas Military Modernization a Threat to the UnitedStates？Cato Institute ，September 9，2002.
35.International Institute for Strategic Studies ，pp.298，301.
36.DoD ，TheSecurity Situation in the Taiwan Strait ，p.3.
37.Richard Bornstein and Ross H.Muro，The Coming Conflict with China （NewYork：Vintage Books，1997），pp.15354.
38.Michael Swaine and James Mulvenon ，Taiwans Foreign and Defense Policies：Features and Determinants（Santa Monica，Calif.：RAND ，2001），p.115.
39.Ibid.，p.124.
40.Swaine and Mulvenon ，pp.11314，116.
41.McNally and Morrison，pp.5657，60.
42.James W.Holt ，Twenty Theses on the Chinese Military and the China-TaiwanMilitary Balance，World Policy Institute ，April 18，2001，p.1，www.comw.org/cmp
43.McNally and Morrison，p.57.
44.DoD ，TheSecurity Situation in the Taiwan Strait ，p.8.
Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to the Un
Time for Washington to Take a Realistic Look at Chin